Jamie Warriner gives his 2024-25 winter weather outlook

If you are dreaming of a white Christmas, you may need to dream on. OzarksFirst.com's Chief Meteorologist Jamie Warriner has released his 2024-2025 winter weather outlook and he expects a warm and dry winter season.

"Looking at the field of play going into this winter, the main driver appears to be a weak La Niña," explains Warriner, "My call is a warmer-than-normal winter with less-than-normal snowfall."

The La Niña pattern comes with stronger trade winds and chillier sea surface temperatures near the equator, off the coast South America.

Warriner says other factors include a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with chillier than normal water temperatures off the West Coast of North America, as well as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The negative PDO usually results in troughing to the west, resulting in warmer temperatures in the middle and eastern parts of the country.

Warriner also uses something called "analog years", winters that featured similar combinations of weather drivers. There are two years in the past 30 years he feels is a close match, 2005-06 and 2016-17.

"The snow in both of the analog winters was historically low with under 2" in Springfield both winters. This is why I'm pessimistic about snow this winter, 2-8" is my forecast," says Warriner.

Despite the low snow forecast, Warriner says there can always be more, "Even though my forecast doesn't look good for snow lovers, that doesn't mean there can't be one good storm in a season that lacks snow. I still expect opportunities for this to happen, but they'll be fewer this winter than average."

A typical La Niña year brings cool, wet weather to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. The southern half of the United States tends to be warmer and drier. During winter, the Polar Jet tends to set up near the Ozarks. The movement north or south of the Polar Jet can bring extreme temperature swings to the area.