Could prime Albert Pujols fetch $1 billion in today's MLB free agency?

ST. LOUIS - Juan Soto, widely regarded as one of Major League Baseball's best players today, signed a groundbreaking 15-year, $765 million contract earlier this month, marking the largest payday in U.S. professional sports history.

Albert Pujols, the St. Louis Cardinals legend who held a similar distinction not too long ago, only made around half that much in estimated earnings over 22 MLB seasons from 2001 to 2022.

Soto's record-breaking deal signals a growing trend in professional sports, specifically baseball, in which elite players can command unprecedented, astronomical figures.

With that in mind, one can't help but wonder: How much would Albert Pujols fetch in today's market? Could he potentially be worth $1 billion?

Contract inflation adjustments

Albert Pujols signed two significant contracts around his prime years with the St. Louis Cardinals.

His first was a seven-year, $100 million deal ahead of the 2004 season with a $16 million club option for the 2011 campaign. That's a total sum of $116 million at the age of 24, buying out several possible arbitration years and keeping him under team control for several more.

After that, Pujols tested free agency ahead of the 2012 season and netted a 10-year, $254 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels at the age of 32.

According to Calculator.net, with U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation-adjustments calculations in mind...

• Pujols' 2004 deal would be worth around $198 million today.
• Pujols' 2012 deal would be worth around $355 million today.

These figures suggest Pujols could have made at least half a billion in career earnings had he maintained his level of prime production leading up to his two major contracts.

The projected $355 million inflation-adjustment contract would only trail five players in total value on one contract: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge. Pujols would only be trailing Betts and Judge by a margin less than $10 million.

Let's do some more math...

When comparing their first seven MLB seasons, Albert Pujols outperformed Juan Soto across most major offensive categories, the stats that typically lead to big paydays.

Pujols nearly put together 10 consecutive seasons with a .300 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored with the St. Louis Cardinals. Juan Soto has never had one such season to this point of his career.

Through their first seven seasons, Pujols also had a considerably larger Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rating compared to Soto, 54.9 compared to 36.4.

A player's WAR rating, as defined by BasbeallReference.com, quantifies a player's overall contribution to their team compared to a hypothetical replacement-level player. WAR incorporates hitting, fielding, baserunning, and other key in-game factors.

While WAR isn't a precise predictor of a player's financial value in free agency, it provides a strong framework for evaluating a player's importance within their team and era. And perhaps it could offer a basis for comparing what prime Pujols might command today in free agency under similar circumstances to Soto.

Entering his age-26 season next year, Soto earned a $765 million contract with a career WAR of 36.4. That equates to the Mets paying roughly $22.5 million for every WAR point that Soto has accrued to this point of his career.

Hypothetically speaking, if Pujols entered free agency at the same point in his career as Soto (seven seasons with a 54.9 WAR), how much would he command?

In proportion to Soto's rate of $22.5 million per WAR, if that were a basis for signing free agents, Pujols could have earned an astounding $1.23 billion on a 15-year deal.

While unfathomable to some extent, let's keep in mind that there are several factors that could temper this billion-dollar figure...

AGE AND ATHLETIC PRIME: For one, Pujols would have secured a new deal with the same amount of experience starting at his age-28 season, compared to age-26 for Soto. For free agents closer to 30, teams may be more cautious about long-term value due to potential injury risks and declines in performances during the later years of a lengthy contract.

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES IN WAR: Soto's outputs are also somewhat incomplete compared to Pujols because his rookie campaign (2018) was slightly shorter in terms of games played, and he also played through the COVID-shortened year in 2020 prior to his first free agency splash, unlike Pujols.

COMPETITION DIFFERENCES: Pujols and Soto enjoyed their early-prime years in different baseball environments. In Pujols' first seven seasons (2001-07), the average ERA for pitchers was 4.40. In Soto's first seven seasons (2018-24), the average ERA for pitchers was 4.24. These differences are a possible indicator of tougher pitching competition for Soto.

And unlike Pujols, Soto has navigated part of his prime through pace-of-play adjustments intended to speed up the game, adjustments that have proved challenging for many modern position players.

UNPRECENTED DEALS: It's worth noting that $700-plus million contracts remain rare in U.S. professional sports, with only Soto and Shohei Ohtani crossing this threshold or even half a billion dollars for MLB contracts.

DIFFERENT DEALS AND TIMELINES: Since the Cardinals locked up Pujols with a long-term deal early in his career, he was never in the same exact spot as Soto when testing free agency. Pujols' largest career contract with the Los Angeles Angels came after his age-31 season.

By the time Soto turns 31, for contrast, he will have 10 years left on his 15-year deal.

So what if a team were to pay Pujols for 10 years at the same rate the Mets paid for Juan Soto? Pujols would likely approach $510 million on such a contract, even without accounting for Pujols' higher WAR as a possible salary consideration.

The Verdict

While there's no precise way to pinpoint an exact figure of what Pujols might make today, it's pretty clear he could at least rival Juan Soto's $765 million payday if his production from his first seven years carried over into free agency like it transpired for Soto this offseason.

It's not totally far-fetched to imagine a prime Pujols free agency in today's market could have pushed the ceiling for MLB contracts, perhaps approaching or surpassing $1 billion in the right market with the right demand.